Kiribati will be underwater soon.

This is just one reason why we have to cut carbon emissions and IMO this is why criminal prosecution should be taken against climate skeptics:

High tide at Old Portsmouth today

 

Some nutters and UKIP supporters still deny sea levels are rising. Sea levels will be about 1 metre higher by the end of this century.

Met Office Chief Scientist links current storms to climate change

Julia Slingo the Met Office chief scientist has linked current storms across Southern England to anthropogenic climate change.

Which highlights the tragic confusion caused by irresponsible policies that attack the establishment of renewable energy in favour of short term 'get rich quick' schemes involving fossil fuels.
Sadly farmers in Somerset, villagers in Hambledon, and train users in the South West (to name a few) have the idea that flooding, gale force winds and overflowing rivers can be fixed permanently with Environment Agency action and government spending.

The FACT is, these events will not only become normal in the future, but also will become more EXTREME!

In public Julia Slingo and her colleagues have to be very cautious, she knows the truth about climate change and the impacts it will have, but she has to word her public anouncements with care, hence the statement:

"There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly rain events." 

Which is code for 'we believe and worry that climate change is responsible'.

So what can people expect?

Well the Somerset levels and Hambledon village down the road will likely flood more regularly and the flooding will probably more extreme. We either spend ever increasing amounts of money to defend against flooding rivers, rising ground water and sea level rise, or we abandon these places. We also have to cut carbon emissions, beacuse ultimately that is the only lasting solution.

Climate change is going to be hard. Even with defences, some people will have to migrate from flood risk areas and green spaces will have to be built on to accomodate those that have to migrate. If areas do flood regularly then homes should be built that can handle to flooding. People around the world build floating homes or homes on 'stilts'. In order to survive we have to change and adapt.

Blaming the Environment Agency and stirring up trouble won't achieve anything. Ye old cottages and boring boxes are the past as far as housing is concerned.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/uks-exceptional-weather-in-context/

Hayling Billy Trail - coastal erosion

Coastal erosion along the Hayling Billy Trail. It doesn't take much in the way of brain cells to see that a 1 metre rise in sea levels would accelerate erosion a great deal.

Climate Change Lecture

Dr Colin Summerhayes is presenting a free lecture at Portsmouth University on Weds 14 March at 6pm about climate change. His main area of expertise is the Antarctic, so the it should be interesting. For more information take a look at the The News article.

Facing up To Rising Sea Levels event

There will be a launch event for the 'Facing up To Rising Sea Levels' exhibition at Portsmouth Cathedral on Tues 16th Feb, at 2.30pm next week. Speakers include the Very Reverend David Brindley, Dean of Portsmouth Cathedral, Ewan Willars, Head of Policy, RIBA and John Slater, Head of Planning, Portsmouth City Council.

More info

New flooding study of Portsmouth

It looks like I'm not the only one who has an interest in the future flooding of Portsmouth. A new study called "Facing up to Rising Sea Levels" looks at the future of Portsmouth and Kingston-upon-Hull. The report has been created by the Institution of Civil Engineers and the Royal Institute of British Architects. It looks at how Portsmouth might cope with sea level rises at the end of the century.

It will be uncomfortable reading for some people. The two organisations look at ways of dealing with sea level rises, pointing out that most of Portsmouth is no more than 3m above sea level.

The Institute of Civil Engineers has a press release about the study, where the report can be downloaded.

Added: An exhibition of the ICE and RIBA study will be held from 15th to 20th February at Portsmouth Cathedral (anglican). There will also be an exhibition of Portsmouth Councils North Solent shoreline management plan at the Central Library on 8th Feb.

Portsmouth Picture Story - high tides and sea levels

Decided to check out the high tide today down in Old Portsmouth, armed with a camera, I thought I would take some photos. Today wasn't the highest tide of the year, that was on August 22nd, when it was about 0.5m higher than today. High tides are caused by the positioning of the Moon and Sun, combined with the rotation of the earth and local phenomenon specific to a location.

Round Tower
Started at the Round Tower in Old Portsmouth at the newish concrete wall. This shot is looking in towards the harbour. The stones are relatively new, I think in the past there was just the wall that can be seen on the right, protecting the property behind it. The latest prediction for the end of this century is for a 1.4m sea level rise (probably greater by the time the century is out), so roughly 5ft. Add another 0.5m for the highest tide and you get about 2m or 6.5ft (added to the sea level in the photo). So the water will be lapping up against that wall and on a rough day, coming over the top




Walking along wall towards Clarence Pier
OK, for those not familiar with Portsmouth, In this photo (below) I am walking on top of the old defensive wall (partly military protection, partly protection from the sea/weather). The ground is a number of metres below, you need to walk up some stairs to go on the wall. In the photo, 'ground level' is a metre or two above the high tide sea level. Here you can sea a concrete platform with a fence around it, completely inundated by the sea. Only really of use to fishermen at lower tides. Note that the lower walkway on the left of the photo (behind the concrete pillars and below the upper walkway. The upper walkway in the photo is also well above ground level), would not be a nice place to be at the highest tide, with a low atmospheric pressure and a storm surge!




Inundated platform
Closer shot of the concrete platform. Note at the end of the century, it will be next to useless, even at mid tide. At the highest tide, the fence will be completely under water (assuming the fence remained).




The moat, Nelsons last walk and Spur Redoubt
Here is a shot of the low wall at the moat near where Nelson made his last walk to his fleet, before the Battle of Trafalgar. Note the water level on the sea side of the wall and the water level on the land side of the wall. I estimate that at maximum high tide, the sea would reach the bottom of the inclined plain of the wall. Another metre or so and it will pour in over the top and into the moat. Portsmouth City Council are probably going to have to raise the wall in about 4 to 6 decades from now.




Culvert allows water into moat
This shot shows the water flowing through a culvert (at high tide) into the moat on the other side of the wall (photo above). Not sure if the culvert door is water tight when closed, probably not.
Note the sea level on the other side would roughly be where the missing stone/brick is above the culvert.




Nelsons tunnel
This is the tunnel Nelson walked through on his way to HMS Victory before setting sail and the Battle of Trafalgar. Note that as well as the culvert for letting water in, there are drainage culverts dotted around the moat. These obviously work fine with current sea levels. On a low tide, the water can drain out if the moat gets to high. Note how close the tunnel entrance is to the water level in the moat. A 1 to 2 metre increase in sea levels, the tunnel and the land at the other end of the tunnel could be flooded. Another problem for Portsmouth City Council to ponder in the coming decades. For those unfamiliar with Portsmouth, the tunnel runs through a built up mound of earth (a rampart), 'ground level' is I believe at the same level as the tunnel (need to check that!).



This photo is an older shot of the tunnel, moat and bridge. It was taken about 10 years ago, or maybe earlier. The fact that the water appears to be at a lower level isn't really relevant. However it can be seen the older bridge was wood. The photo was taken from the ruins of the Spur Redoubt.




Close up at Tunnel entrance
Here's a close up of the water at the tunnels entrance. The Moat may have to be dry in the future, with the sea prevented from entering (the culverts sealed). This maybe the only way of protecting the tunnel and Southsea from being flooded.




Clarence Pier
Clarence pier is a metre or two above high tide. Another 0.5m needs to be added in this photo for the max tide. Basically the future of Clarence Pier this century is doubtful. I don't know how well the businesses do on it, but I suspect there won't be the money to do the required sea defence work. Unless of course it comes out of public funds.




Beach near the hovercraft terminal
Note, that a 1.4m sea level rise would roughly erode 14m or more of beach inland. Basically on a high tide the building in the shot here (I think it is the RNLI building, but can't remember) would be in the water.



Hope you enjoyed that! I think most of my comments are accurate, if you know the workings of the moat and it doesn't match mine, then do leave a comment. What should be remembered is that this area is relatively well protected. A few modifications and there aren't many problems. The biggest problem though is that sea levels won't stop rising at the end of the century. You can probably add another 2 to 4 metres next century and so on, century after century!

South coast sea levels rising

Researchers at Southampton University have used data from numerous sources and show that sea levels along the South coast of England have been rising over the last century. A serious flooding event that would have occurred once in 100 years in 1900 would now occur once in 10 to 25 years.
As sea levels continue to rise, the events are going to increase (once every year or so) and obviously eventually it won't be possible to defend Portsmouth against the rising waters.

I wrote a post a while ago suggesting that Portsmouth would have to be abandoned as the seas continue to rise.
One assumes that such news would eventually affect property, land prices and insurance cover, one wonders when this would happen?
Portsmouth City Council won't discuss it or even mention it. Southampton is planning a large barrier to fend off the sea, but as an island, Portsmouth is doomed to become a modern Atlantis with the Spinnaker tower poking above the waters.

A 1.5 metre sea level rise and us

Recently two different scientific teams (Stefan Rahmstorf in Germany and Svetlana Jevrejeva in the UK) predicted that sea levels will rise between 0.5m and 1.5m by 2100. There are many predictions about sea level rises, including conservative IPCC predictions and scifi scale predictions that are much greater (naming no American names!).

This may seem irrelevant to anyone living in and around Waterlooville. Why would a 1.5m rise on the Solent coast have anything to do with people living on high ground at Waterlooville?

Well if you look at any maps that show the effects of different increases in sea level rises, you will see that even for small rises, the Solent coast starts looking a lot different when compared to other areas of the South Coast. With a 1.5m rise, Portsmouth in particular doesn't come off very well. Anyone living near Eastern road is probably going to have salt sea water permanently lapping around their front door and in their living room. In fact large chunks of the Portsmouth coast line will move inwards, covering streets.

OK so far, chunks of Portsmouth will be under salt water, is this all we have to worry about?

Well no, one obvious problem would be sewage, you can't have sea water getting into the current sewage system. So thats one problem. But that is relatively minor (Yes really, it is!). The main problem is that the sea isn't so benign that it will happily stay 1.5 metres higher than it is now. The next problem is the tide. What appears to be a minor problem of water permanently flooding a few roads, becomes a serious problem of flooding on a larger scale at regular times. So not only do you have people flooded out permanently, but also a greater number of people flooded a number of times a year by the tides.

That's not all. Regular tides are predictable, although probably not manageable without significant defenses. A bigger problem of a 1.5m rise for the whole of Portsmouth is the weather. Storms, surges and high tides would occasionally combine to flood great chunks of Portsmouth. If all these factors are combined then anyone living near the sea in Portsmouth would have to move. Those living on slightly higher ground would also have to move due to tidal flooding, those nearer the central areas will get fed up with the sewage polluting the homes and roads, as well as the weather related flooding.

Where does this all lead to?

Well Portsmouth City council statistics show the cities population being about 196,400 people in 2006. That is a lot of people who will need to move in the next 80 to 90 years. Yes, just 80 to 90 years. Anyone born this year is likely to see this happen in their life time. Even if only 50,000 have to move, that is a lot of people to accommodate in the local area or across Hampshire. If the whole lot move (and that doesn't include other coastal areas in Hampshire), then we have a serious problem.

How does this affect Waterlooville? Well maybe one of the obvious places to go when you're flooded out is nearby higher ground. The pressure to build even more houses in the area will be even greater. You would also have to move businesses, schools etc. The whole thing would be environmentally devastating and extremely expensive.

There are various scenarios that are possible. The first is that because the sea level rise would be relatively slow, the migration from Portsmouth will be gradual and people will even move out of Hampshire. The second possibility is that the government will spend huge amounts of money and put up massive sea defenses, something like New Orleans where much of Portsmouth would be below sea level. This may just put off the inevitable though?

However you look at the issue, Portsmouth and the surrounding area could have some serious problems to deal with in a relatively short time. The whole coast of Hampshire may very well become an economic dead zone, which will also propagate throughout the UK

Some useful links:
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory
Potsdam Institure for Climate Impact Research
CReSIS Northern Europe Map