Tuesday, March 26

Cold wet weather - caused by global warming?

Over the last 12 months we have seen miserable weather. Dull, cloudy, cool and wet (to an extreme in some places).

The question is, what is causing it?

There appears to be growing evidence or early indicators that the warming of the Arctic and melting of sea ice are looking like significant factors (along with some others such as the Arctic Oscillation) in generating the cold weather this winter and spring. Last year we saw some extreme weather caused by the jetstream moving further south than normal. This pushes the warm weather further south and draws the colder wetter weather down over the UK.

The same problem is causing the cold weather this spring. The jetstream is further south than normal, sucking cold weather south with it.

In 2010 the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research sent out a press release on new research that indicated a tripling in probability that reduced sea ice cover in the Arctic will cause extreme cold winters over Europe and North Asia.

Last year, the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research announced similar findings, stating "Even if the current weather situation may seem to speak against it, the probability of cold winters with much snow in Central Europe rises when the Arctic is covered by less sea ice in summer"

And in the Guardian yesterday Jennifer Francis, professor at the Rutgers Institute of Coastal and Marine Science was reported as saying that a growing number of researchers think that the shrinking ice and exposed warming seas of the Arctic are responsible for pushing the jetstream south. She warned in September last year that the shrinking ice could result in a cold winter.

As the evidence builds up, it could be that the initial effects of the extreme aspects of global warming are that we (the UK) have colder duller winters and springs. We will have to wait and see what summer brings this year and more importantly how often this type of weather occurs..


Copie said...

What garbage you write, claiming that record cold weather is caused by global warming. Even the UK Met office has now admitted that there has been no warming for the past 16 years!

TheVille said...

Hi Copie.

Thanks for your comment. Some points...

With respect to your comment about the UK Met Office and that you believe that they or someone at the organisation has stated it hasn't warmed in 16 years, you are incorrect. I think it was reported in the Daily Mail by David Rose. I suggest you actually ask The Met Office their opinion rather than getting it second hand from a reporter.

Met Office Statement about Roses article:


In the reply to Roses question about warming since 1997, The Met Office confirm that warming has taken place.

Tamino also pointed out that choosing 1997 as a starting point, guarenteed the outcome Rose was looking for:


Also if you read my post more carefully, I have put a question mark in the title, which in normal English language indicates that there is uncertainty. I also stated 'There appears to be growing evidence or early indicators...' which also implies that at this stage we can't be certain.